THE tourism industry can look forward to pretty good times in the next couple of years, according to Dr. Roelof Botha, one of South Africa’s leading economists, authors and financial commentators. Speaking at the Sure Travel congress at Kleinmond last week, he painted a positive picture of tourism’s future and of South African and global economic prospects. Tourism, he said, was a “sunrise economy”. Business tourism in particular, he added, would shrug off the current economic slowdown because the global economy would pick up again from next year. He forecast that 2010 would be a bumper year for the world economy, which he said was good news for South Africa because of the soccer world cup. “This should move tourism to a structurally higher level after 2010, especially if Zimbabwe democratises.” He said oil was expected to stabilise at US$80 (R590) a barrel due to a drop in demand. “If (democratic US presidential candidate) Barack Obama becomes US president it will result in a lessening of geo-political tensions in the Middle East and a warming towards Iran, which means oil can go back to US$50 (R369) a barrel. It’s not impossible,” he said. Botha dismissed reports that South Africa and the rest of the world was sliding into a recession. “Four per cent GDP growth is not a recession. The next four to nine months will be tough but growth will continue. The world is not and will not go into a recession.” He said the SADC region was on the verge of an economic upswing with the protocol having been signed for a SADC common currency, which could see the rand disappear by 2015. Angola was the fastest growing economy in the southern hemisphere, and Tanzania ranked in the top ten. In South Africa, income and wealth taxes were coming down while the household income ratio was going up. Private sector capital expenditure had shown that business had confidence in the South African economy. Government should match this by spending more money on infrastructure development, which would re-invigorate the economy. He suggested government use its budget surplus to finance a basic income grant of R250 a month as a viable solution to decreasing crime, 85% of which was poverty related. With new investments by Eskom, South Africa should have surplus electricity from next year resulting in 5% GDP growth in 2009 and 6% in 2010. “Pessimists will lose market share!” he said.