CapeTown needs an orchestrated and cohesive effort by the public and private sector to change its seasonality problem, which has not improved over the past decade despite numerous winter tourism campaigns, says Ian Bartes, Cape Town Tourism’s (CTT) outgoing Chairman and Airports Company SA (ACSA) Manger of Service Standards at Cape Town International Airport.  

He says Cape Town’s seasonality problem is the reason why most airlines can’t afford to serve the city directly all year round and why prices are hiked over the season to make up for winter losses.

Bartes says although passenger numbers have increased over the years, the difference between summer and winter arrivals remains around 200 000 passengers. “We haven’t changed the situation in 10 years! Unless we address the seasonal drop we will not get the air access we want. We need to stimulate supply by talking to the airlines and we need to stimulate demand by investing in more events in the winter months,” he says.

ACSA statistics show that annual troughs in passenger arrivals in May and June and highs in December and January remain fairly constant. For example, about 400 000 passengers arrived in May 2004, compared to 600 000 in December 2004. In 2011, 600 000 passengers arrived during May versus 800 000 during December - in both cases, a difference of about 200 000 passengers. International arrivals in winter have improved marginally from about 30 000 in May 2007 to about 36 000 in May 2012, but these are still 47 000 and 52 000 less arrivals respectively when compared to about 77 000 arrivals in December 2007 and 87 000 arrivals in December 2011.

In addition, says Bartes, demand in general is dwindling due to the economic crisis in key source markets and soaring fuel prices pushing up airfares. He says the lack of year-round direct services from Europe is reflected in declining arrivals from the continent (Germany, Netherlands, France) and the UK, while growth is happening from Africa, Asia, North America and the Middle East.

Total growth of passengers at CTIA in the past year (April to March 2011/12) has been quite flat at 4,58% totalling 8,576m passengers. With South African Airways no longer flying directly from Cape Town and a struggling airline industry, passenger numbers are forecast to decline slightly by 0,20% to 8,555m passengers this year (April to March 2012/13) and to stagnate at 8,589m passengers, an increase of 0,40%, in 2013/14. A breakdown of this shows that domestic passengers increased by 6,10% to 7,028m in the year April to March 2011/12, but growth is expected to slow by 0,07% to 7,033m in 2012/13 and 0,040% to 7,061m in 2013/14. International passenger arrivals grew by 11,06% to 1,4m in 2011/12, but numbers are expected to decline by 2,4% to 1,355m in 2012/13 and 0,50% to R1,348m in 2013/14.