Mauritius is expected to welcome 1.5 million tourists in 2024, surpassing the historic peak of 1.4m arrivals recorded in 2018, according to analytics firm BMI, a division of Fitch Solutions.

Arrivals to the Indian Ocean island destination reached 1.3m in 2023, with this number expected to grow by 14% this year and to continue on an upward trajectory over the medium-term (up to 2028).   

France was Mauritius’s largest source market in 2023 with 319 522 tourists (24.7% of overall arrivals), followed by the UK with 145 873 arrivals (11.3%) and Réunion (10.4%). Germany came in fourth with 118 546 arrivals (9.2%), while South Africa completed the top-five largest source markets with 106 169 arrivals (8.2%).

“We forecast Mauritius’s arrivals to continue to increase over the remainder of our 2024-2028 forecast period, growing by an annual average of 6.8% y-o-y to reach 1.8m in 2028, driven by key source markets in Europe, Africa and the Asia-Pacific regions,” BMI said in a statement.

BMI cautioned that, despite the positive outlook, tough global macroeconomic conditions and tighter credit conditions will weigh on consumers’ ability to spend on discretionary categories such as travel and hospitality in the short term.

“We believe consumers in key source markets, particularly in Europe, will remain price sensitive in 2024 with travellers shifting travel preferences from long-haul travel to travelling domestically or within the Europe region. We also expect travellers to limit their frequency of travel while extending their duration of stays at a destination.”

BMI highlighted that marketing initiatives undertaken by the Mauritius Tourism Promotion Authority (MTPA) would likely drive the expansion of tourist arrivals, while also contributing to the diversification of source markets.

The introduction of additional flight routes by Air Mauritius is also expected to bolster the MTPA’s strategy to boost visitor numbers.

In April 2024, MTPA entered into a sales, marketing and public relations partnership with dnata, a Dubai-based air and travel services company, to increase arrivals from the UAE.

“UAE-based travellers can conveniently access Mauritius through Emirates' twice-daily flights from Dubai aboard the Airbus A380, with a flight duration of around six and a half hours,” BMI said.  

In February, Air Mauritius announced plans to launch two seasonal weekly direct flights between Mauritius and Rome from October 16, 2024 to April 30, 2025.

“The launch of the two direct flights between Mauritius and Rome will support the growth of the market’s arrivals from Italy and its neighbouring markets,” BMI concluded.