Overseas arrivals to South Africa for the first half of this year are up 19% year-to-date, compared with 2015, according to the latest arrival stats from Statistics SA. Total arrivals to South Africa are up 15% year-to-date compared with 2015.

However, despite significant growth, David Frost, Satsa CEO, points out that over recent year’s South Africa’s tourism growth has stagnated. “The last four years, we’ve actually stood still,” said Frost. Frost points out that internationally, growth in arrivals average about 4% a year. Had 4% growth been achieved in South Africa year on year since 2012, the total number of arrivals for the first six months of 2016 would stand at 5 166 532. South Africa’s actual arrivals is 4% lower than this, with the total number of arrivals for the period from January to June 2016 at 4 969 087.

Tourism Update tracked the first six months of arrivals to South Africa over the last four years. While total  arrivals to South Africa for the first six months is 15% up compared with the same period in 2015, when a significant decline in arrivals was experienced, overseas arrivals to South Africa for the first six months of 2016 are up by only 0.57% compared with the same period for 2012. The total number of overseas arrivals for the first six months was 1 163 478 and 1 170 148 for the years 2012 and 2016 respectively.

Compared with the first six months of 2015, arrivals from the US are up by 19%, and the UK up by 2%. However, these key source markets experienced slow growth on 2012 figures. Arrivals from the US for the first six months are up by only 5% compared with the same period in 2012, with a total of 163 257 arrivals between January and June. Arrivals from the UK for the first six months are up 3% compared with the same period in 2012, with a total of 222 942 arrivals. 

Germany, the third biggest source market into SA, is showing healthy growth over the past few years. Arrivals from Germany for the first six months is up 21% compared with 2015. Germany also leads the tourism growth for the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2012, up by 19% with a total of 142 092 arrivals between January and June.

Commenting on the outlook ahead, Frost said there were a number of challenges facing growth for 2017. “If we’ve got capacity constraints in Cape Town in terms of hotels and high-end game lodges, we need to be looking at markets that are able to visit in winter.” Frost added that product development was needed in the northern part of the country so that every itinerary to South Africa did not have to include Cape Town. “If we’ve got capacity constraints in Cape Town, we can’t grow.”

For the 2014 arrival figures, Stats SA stopped counting people transiting through SA as tourists. As a result of the revision, in order to compare figures after 2014 with previous years, it is necessary to deduct the transit figures from the totals, which Tourism Update has done for the purpose of this report.