The outlook for international tourism is cautiously optimistic, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization’s (UNWTO) latest World Tourism Barometer results.

The survey was conducted among industry experts across the globe, weighing in on their expectations of tourism performance for H2 2022 and for 2023. 

Some 47% of the experts see positive prospects for the remainder of this year, while for 2023, 65% see better tourism performance than in 2022. In terms of a complete return to pre-pandemic levels, 27% believe this will happen in 2023, with 61% percent predicting a return in 2024 or later.

Experts do, however, note that the current economic environment is weighing down the recovery of international tourism, with rising inflation and an increase in oil prices resulting in higher transport and accommodation costs.

Results from the latest barometer also indicate that the number of international arrivals has reached 57% of pre-pandemic levels and has almost tripled from January to July this year compared with 2021.

An estimated 474 million international arrivals were recorded from January to July this year, of which an estimated 207 million were recorded in June and July alone. 

Europe and the Middle East showed the fastest recovery in the January to July period, with arrivals reaching 74% and 76% of 2019 levels respectively. The Americas and Africa reached 65% and 60% of 2019 levels respectively, while Asia and the Pacific remained 86% below 2019 levels. The low growth rate recorded for Asia and the Pacific has been attributed to the borders remaining closed for non-essential travel.

Several sub-regions reached 70%-80% of their pre-pandemic international tourist arrivals from January to July; these include southern Mediterranean Europe, the Caribbean, Central America, Western Europe, and Northern Europe. Those that exceeded pre-pandemic levels of international arrivals in the first five to seven months of this year include the US Virgin Islands, Albania, Saint Maarten, Ethiopia, Honduras, Andorra, Puerto Rico, United Arab Emirates, Dominican Republic, San Marino, El Salvador, and Curaçao.