The global economy is set to rack up a pitiful growth record by the end of 2024 – the slowest half-decade of GDP growth in 30 years.

This is according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, which highlights that, at least by one measure, the global economy is in a better place than it was a year ago.

The risk of a global recession has receded, largely because of the strength of the US economy. But mounting geopolitical tensions could create fresh near-term hazards for the world economy.

Meanwhile, the medium-term outlook has darkened for many developing economies amid slowing growth in most major economies, sluggish global trade, and the tightest financial conditions in decades. Global trade growth in 2024 is expected to be only half the average in the decade before the pandemic.

Global growth is projected to slow for the third year in a row – from 2.6% last year to 2.4% in 2024, almost three-quarters of a percentage point below the average of the 2010s.

“Without a major course correction, the 2020s will go down as a decade of wasted opportunity,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President.

“Near-term growth will remain weak, leaving many developing countries – especially the poorest – stuck in a trap, with paralysing levels of debt and tenuous access to food for nearly one out of every three people. That would obstruct progress on many global priorities. Opportunities still exist to turn the tide. This report offers a clear way forward: it spells out the transformation that can be achieved if governments act now.”

Sub-Saharan Africa outlook

According to the report, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to accelerate to 3.8% in 2024 and firm up further to 4.1% in 2025 as inflationary pressures fade and financial conditions ease.

While growth in the largest economies in SSA – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – is expected to lag behind the rest of the region, non-resource-rich economies are forecast to maintain a growth rate above the regional average.

Excluding the three largest SSA economies, growth in the region is expected to accelerate from 3.9% in 2023 to 5% in 2024 and strengthen further to 5.3% in 2025.