Ahead of peak season, social media platforms are flooded with consumers’ opinions on the high price of domestic flights. Airlines say, while peak pricing is currently effective, the price of domestic flights has technically reduced.

A one-way flight between Johannesburg and Cape Town for the week of 23 December currently ranges between approximately R2 000 (€105) and R5 000 (€263) depending on the airline. Flights between Johannesburg and George start at around R2 800 (€147) and Johannesburg and Durban from around R1 900 (€100).

Kirby Gordon, Chief Marketing Officer for FlySafair, said: “The increase we’re seeing in the domestic market for the year to date is below inflation, which means the price of flights has come down slightly.”

However, the airline has noted a surge in demand since September, he added. “In the past two months, it has been up but not by a wide margin and certainly nowhere near 2022 when the fuel price went through the roof with closure of local refineries.”

Airlink has noted similar trends, according to the airline’s CEO and Managing Director Rodger Foster. “We have not seen airfares across the board harden over the past year – they’ve softened commensurately with the key cost driver: fuel. Jet fuel costs less this year than it did a year ago.”

Pricing is driven by supply and demand driven, Foster pointed out. “During high season, this time of the year, there is opportunistic pricing by all of the carriers.

“I’m not admitting that we are opportunists but, when you have sold out all of your cheap seats a year in advance and you’re only left with the last few seats and there is more demand than availability, you’re going to sell at full price.”

If travellers have left their high season travel arrangements to the last minute, there is a good chance they’re going to pay full fare, Foster said.

South African full fares are a fraction of the price in other parts of the established world, he added.

Linden Birns, Managing Director of Plane Talking, said air travel appears relatively expensive compared to some of the world’s biggest markets but South Africa is actually among the cheapest.

Several factors determine the price, creating “razor thin” profit margins for airlines, he pointed out.

Fuel is the leading cost determinant

For airlines, fuel is the leading cost determinant. Gordon said the price of oil has decreased slightly over the past year but, as always, drops are moderate relative to climbs.

“Since 2022, with local refineries closing down, South Africa has become a net importer of synthesised Jet A1. Our response to adjustments in the oil price is delayed but we carry the transportation costs of imported fuel.”

Gordon said the cost of planes is also increasing due to shortages in the market.

“Restrictions on Boeing’s output of new 737 deliveries following issues with the FAA means more aircraft are retiring in the global narrow-body market than new deliveries. The result is metal supply constraint, which is making aircraft hard to come by and quite expensive.”

Fewer domestic seats

Compared to pre-COVID years, there are also fewer domestic seats. Speaking at the recent Western Cape Tourism readiness summit, Wesgro CEO Wrenelle Stander said there are 3% more flights but 1% fewer seats.

However, FlySafair estimates there are closer to 14% fewer seats available than pre-COVID.

“This is indicative of softer demand,” said Gordon. “The market has been in sustainable equilibrium, in our view, so any major unseasonal supply shocks are troublesome. Nevertheless, the recent uplift in demand indicates there could be space for a few more flights, which is a positive sign.”

Foster said Airlink has fewer seats in the market for the peak period than it did last year. This is primarily because the airline found routes were oversupplied last year, resulting in competitors price gouging and under-achievement of revenues.

ATNS delays and issues throughout the year have also put increasing pressure on aircraft operators’ financial performance.

Foster said the ATNS debacle led to a radical increase in costs. However, these costs do not factor into fares, he added.

“Fares are dependent on the market and its competition. Fares are market-driven and all operators must manage costs as best as possible.

“More or less 10% of all of our flights since July 20 have been adversely affected. We’ve had numerous flight cancellations, flights diverted and an unbelievable number of flights put into holding patterns.”

Gordon said FlySafair is consuming an estimated additional R3 million (€158 394) worth of fuel every month due to delays, diversions and holding patterns.