Overseas arrivals to SA were down 8% year to date at the end of October, according to figures released by Stats SA this week. SA’s biggest source markets, the US, UK and Germany are down year to date, by 7%, 2% and 9% respectively.
David Frost, CEO of SATSA, says that this unprecedented decline comes at a time when SA should be showing growth out of these markets. According to him, the decline out of the US and Europe in particular is the result of SA’s current brand positioning. Frost says there has been a succession of negative reports about South Africa, not related to tourism necessarily, but none the less doing damage to the country’s brand positioning. He suggests that the public and private sector needs to harness all its resources to arrest this decline.
However, while overseas arrivals to SA continued to show decline, the latest stats suggest that the decline is slowing. During October, overseas arrivals decreased 0,1% year on year. This compares to a year on year decline of 3% in September, 11% in August and 13% in July. Frost said this was likely because of the exchange rate.
Department of Home Affairs Minister Malusi Gigaba last week hailed SA’s peak tourism season, suggesting that foreign arrivals were up 7% year on year for the period of December 1 to January 7. However, Tourism Update readers questioned these figures, pointing out that they had yet to be verified and published by Stats SA, while it was also necessary to distinguish between foreign arrivals and actual tourists. Stats SA has not published arrival stats past October.
While Gigaba emphasised the growth over the recent peak season, which he said included an 8% increase out of North America and a 6% increase out of Europe, Frost argues that for the last three months, SA should have experienced double digit growth out of these markets given the exchange rate. He pointed out that in the last three months, the rand has depreciated 44% against the dollar and 38% against the pound.