Using advanced big data analytics, the International Civil Aviation Organization forecasts that air passenger demand in 2023 will rapidly recover to pre-pandemic levels on most routes by the first quarter and that growth of around 3% on 2019 figures will be achieved by year-end.

This is a more optimistic outlook than the one shared by Iata last year, which estimated that overall air traveller numbers would fully recover and exceed pre-COVID-19 levels by 3% only in 2024.

“Assuring the safe, secure, and sustainable recovery of air services will be key to restoring aviation’s ability to act as a catalyst for sustainable development at the local, national and global levels, and will consequently be vital to countries’ recovery from the broader impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic,” says ICAO Council President, Salvatore Sciacchitano. 

“The air passenger forecasts ICAO is announcing today build on the strong momentum toward recovery in 2022, as previously assessed by ICAO statistical analysis,” adds ICAO Secretary General, Juan Carlos Salazar.

The number of air passengers carried in 2022 increased by an estimated 47% compared with 2021, while revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) increased by around 70% over the same period. In terms of airlines’ annual passenger revenues, keeping yield and exchange rates at 2019 levels, ICAO observed growth of an estimated 50% from 2021 to 2022.

In line with earlier ICAO predictions, the strong recovery in air passenger demand has resulted in 2022 passenger numbers reaching an estimated 74% of pre-pandemic levels, while passenger revenues are estimated to have reached around 68% of 2019 levels.

The number of passenger aircraft in service in 2022 mirrored the overall traffic recovery, with current estimates suggesting it was 75% of pre-pandemic levels.

In 2022, aircraft orders and deliveries by major manufacturers Airbus and Boeing grew by 53% for orders and 20% for deliveries, compared with the previous year. The number of orders in 2022 exceeded those seen since 2019, indicating the recovery of aircraft demand.

Looking further ahead, airlines are expected to return to operating profitability in the last quarter of 2023, after three consecutive years of losses. Air passenger demand in 2024 is expected to be stronger still, at around 4% higher than 2019.