Africa, with its continued reliance on international travel, continues to be vulnerable to external shocks. However, a recovery from the pandemic is still expected by 2024 for the continent’s traffic numbers. This is according to Airports Council International (ACI) World’s latest airport traffic outlook.

The passenger traffic in Africa has shown recovery from 114,8 million (50,1% of 2019 levels) in 2021, to 178,6 million in 2022 (77,9% of 2019 levels). Africa is expected to stay on the recovery trend this year – with around 94% of 2019 levels – and onwards, making a full recovery to 2019 levels in 2024.

Global outlook

With the removal of travel restrictions and quarantine requirements for vaccinated travellers in 2022, there has been an upsurge in demand across many markets, according to the ACI report.

Global passenger traffic finished 2022 at 72% of 2019 levels, with a total of 6,5 billion passengers. Market segments varied, however, with international passenger numbers at 60% of 2019 levels and domestic at 79%.

The recovery in passenger volumes in 2022 remained uneven across the globe with Latin American-Caribbean markets reaching 91% of 2019 levels, while the Asia-Pacific region lagged at 52%.

2024

Global passenger traffic is forecast to reach 92% of 2019 levels (or 8,4 billion passengers) in 2023. The baseline projections for global passenger traffic indicate that the industry will recover to 2019 levels by 2024, driven mainly by domestic travel.

“The surge in travel following the lifting of restrictions in 2022 continues into 2023,” says ACI World DG, Luis Felipe de Oliveira.

“However, we are cognisant that the speed of the recovery depends on several factors. On the one hand, the possible slowing in GDP growth in major economies coupled with the rise in airfares due to higher jet fuel prices, weigh negatively on demand. On the other hand, a strong labour market and the reopening of China, the second-largest aviation market after the United States, represents an important boost to global passenger traffic,” De Oliveira adds.

Passenger traffic worldwide is expected to reach 19,3 billion in 2041, with 153,8 million aircraft movements. The United States, China and India are forecast to be the leading markets for aircraft movements in 2041, respectively hosting 23%, 16%, and 4% of global aircraft movements.