With East African countries now surpassing pre-COVID tourism activity, the spotlight has again turned on the need to carefully weigh economic benefits against the ongoing risks that overtourism and major infrastructure development could pose to the crucial Serengeti-Maasai Mara ecosystem.

Tanzania and Kenya, home to the Serengeti National Park and Maasai Mara National Reserve respectively, have both rapidly reached 2019 international arrival levels. Tanzania hit 1.8 million tourists in 2023, a 17% leap from the 1.5 million 2019 arrivals – making the country Africa’s second best-performing destination in terms of recovery. Kenya’s 1.95 million arrivals were at 97% of 2019.

With the July to September high season approaching – when thousands of tourists flock to the Serengeti and Maasai Mara to witness the Great Migration – concerns have resurfaced over the impact that an unprecedented number of visitors could have on the famed wilderness areas’ natural environment.

“Tourism has long been viewed as a way to protect the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem. But now many conservation experts place it among a growing list of threats,” said David Blanton, Founder and Director of Serengeti Watch, an Earth Island Institute project that, together with the Serengeti Preservation Foundation and communities, assists in protecting the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem.

“A prime example is Maasai Mara, Kenya’s northern section of the Serengeti ecosystem. Without thought to guardrails or limits, the Mara has become overgrown with lodges and camps, some without legal permits.”

Blanton said that to the south, the Serengeti National Park had not yet reached this level of overtourism, but the race to attract travellers was on. 

“Congestion in the central Serengeti National Park is heavy, and it will get even worse if the government moves ahead with a plan to pave roads there. And the crowding and resulting wildlife impacts seen in the Mara are spreading south into the northern Serengeti National Park. Massive numbers of vehicles gather at wildebeest crossings,” said Blanton.

Overtourism has been identified as a secondary contributor towards a significant decline in wildlife numbers experienced in the Maasai Mara between 1977 and 2018. A study by Joseph Ogutu, a Kenyan national and Senior Wildlife Researcher at the University of Hohenheim in Germany, found that Kenya’s overall wildlife populations had declined by 68% over that period, with the Mara being especially hard hit.

“It is important to remember that tourism’s impacts do not operate in isolation. They combine with many other stresses operating on the ecosystem. Climate change, burgeoning human and livestock populations, invasive plant species, and diminishing water resources, among others, are creating a perfect storm of threats,” said Blanton.

Infrastructure development a threat

After Serengeti Watch was established in 2010, the organisation helped to fund a successful court case – brought by the African Network for Animal Welfare – to stop the building of a 452km commercial highway running through the northern part of Serengeti National Park – a Unesco World Heritage Site.

In March of this year, Tanzania’s government revived efforts to have gravel roads inside the park upgraded to tar and concrete, submitting a proposal to Unesco for approval.

Unesco has already voiced concern at the intensity of tourism infrastructure development happening in the Serengeti, putting the park’s World Heritage status at risk.

In its most recent State of Conservation Report, compiled in 2023, Unesco said it “notes with concern that the increasing density of lodges, tented camps and other tourism infrastructure in the property and along the migration routes in the wider Serengeti ecosystem is increasingly likely to impact the wildebeest migration, one of the main attributes of the Outstanding Universal Value”.

Governments acknowledge issues

Blanton said Tanzania’s government was well aware of the value of its tourism assets – particularly in the northern safari circuit that encompasses the Serengeti and the Ngorongoro Crater.

“It’s a key part of government’s economic development plan, and in general government knows the great potential all its natural areas hold. New lodges are being approved and big investors are welcome. Unfortunately, decisions are being made less on conservation priorities than balance sheets. Previous environment standards for new development are increasingly glossed over or disregarded,” said Blanton.

He however gave credit to the government for attempting to develop an alternative southern circuit that includes Ruaha and Mikumi National Parks, Nyerere National Park (formerly Selous) and Katavi National Park.

“These are good alternatives, but diversifying tourism will be difficult. Most people will want to visit the Serengeti and Ngorongoro. In the end, quotas might need to be imposed for the northern circuit. But if the right incentives are given to tourism businesses and the right marketing is done, a southern circuit will help.”

The World Bank had granted Tanzania US$150 million to develop this southern circuit through the building of roads, viewing areas and visitor centres, and enhancing wildlife monitoring and security.

Tanzania had already received $100 million of the funding, but the remaining $50 million was withdrawn earlier this year after accusations of gross human rights violations, including mass evictions and violence against local communities.

Meanwhile, the Kenyan government’s Greater Maasai Mara Ecosystem Management Plan (2023-2032) recognises that challenges to the reserve’s tourism management plan include a “poor reputation due to overcrowding of visitors during the migration, which gives the destination the label of a mass low-quality destination”.

The plan further recognises the impacts of explosive tourism infrastructure development in the 1990s, cited as a period of unprecedented growth in visitor facilities and accommodations fuelled by “private sector business instinct”.

“Unfortunately, this growth was not guided by any set regulations and standards. This is the foundation behind the bad reputation of the Mara as a tourist destination with no standards in operations and with poor roads and associated infrastructures,” the plan states.

In order to diversify tourism offerings and disperse the spread of visitors, the plan highlights emerging opportunities for adventure tourism in adjoining conservancies such as Loita Forest. 

In June, the national reserve banned the use of private vehicles in alignment with the tourism impacts it is seeking to control on the reserve, which include the disturbance of important ecological sites like migration crossings, off-road driving and pollution of rivers. 

Blanton called for a slow-down on new development, the enforcement of quotas (especially at wildebeest river crossings) and greater involvement of the travel industry in management of the reserve.

“Companies that benefit from the Serengeti need to give back in a significant way. The Serengeti-Mara ecosystem has entered a critical phase in which decisions taken now will determine its future. Travel companies, and travellers themselves, can do much to influence this future and build sustainable community conservation.”